Articles | Volume 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-3-43-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-3-43-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Trust in Models – Open Letter from the Editors
Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Berlin, 10623, Germany
Martin Navarro
Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Berlin, 10623, Germany
Jens Eckel
Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Berlin, 10623, Germany
Stephan Hotzel
Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Berlin, 10623, Germany
Carlo Dietl
Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management, Berlin, 10623, Germany
Related authors
Fabien Magri, Ingo Kock, Judith Krohn, Florian Krob, Veronika Ustohalova, Stefan Wittek, and Dimitri Bratzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 139–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
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In this project, an assessment tool is developed to evaluate the applicability of AI methods in geosciences with respect to key geological activities in the site selection process. The results show that AI should not have any decision-making power when used in the site selection process. It is strongly recommended that all methods should be evaluated and validated iteratively and that the results should be made publicly available when applied to the key activities of the site selection process.
Marek Pekala, Carl Rudolf Dietl, Fabiano Magri, and Ingo Kock
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 125–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-125-2023, 2023
Short summary
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DECOVALEX is an international collaborative project aiming to develop models simulating coupled thermal–hydro–chemical–mechanical processes for use in performance and safety assessment of disposal systems for high-level radioactive waste. BASE actively contributes to Task F, which seeks to build confidence in performance assessment methodologies. This contribution describes recent BASE activities within Task F Salt of DECOVALEX-2023, including lessons learnt and possible future steps.
Martin Navarro, Ingo Kock, Gerd Frieling, and Thomas Beuth
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 41–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-41-2021, 2021
Ingo Kock, Michael Jendras, Thorsten Faß, Gerd Frieling, Wolfram Wartenberg, and Karsten Leopold
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 59–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-59-2021, 2021
Ingo Kock, Martin Navarro, Jens Eckel, Carsten Rücker, and Stephan Hotzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 303–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-303-2021, 2021
Carlo Dietl, Friederike Kelle, and Alexander von Oertzen
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 255–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-255-2023, 2023
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This abstract describes the scope and the layout of workshop W08 on
Uranium mining – lessons to learn for waste disposal in view of participation and safety.
Fabien Magri, Ingo Kock, Judith Krohn, Florian Krob, Veronika Ustohalova, Stefan Wittek, and Dimitri Bratzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 139–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this project, an assessment tool is developed to evaluate the applicability of AI methods in geosciences with respect to key geological activities in the site selection process. The results show that AI should not have any decision-making power when used in the site selection process. It is strongly recommended that all methods should be evaluated and validated iteratively and that the results should be made publicly available when applied to the key activities of the site selection process.
Thomas Beuth, Jens Eckel, Gerd Frieling, Martin Navarro, Stefan Schöbel, and Torben Weyand
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 81–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-81-2023, 2023
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Up to now, only little research has been done on the question of when a scenario is covered by calculation cases. The outcome of the EMS (Entwicklung einer Methode zur szenariengestützten Identifizierung von Berechnungsmodellen) project is intended to support the Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management (BASE) within the framework of supervision and approval in the evaluation process of whether scenarios have been sufficiently covered by calculation cases.
Marek Pekala, Carl Rudolf Dietl, Fabiano Magri, and Ingo Kock
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 125–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
DECOVALEX is an international collaborative project aiming to develop models simulating coupled thermal–hydro–chemical–mechanical processes for use in performance and safety assessment of disposal systems for high-level radioactive waste. BASE actively contributes to Task F, which seeks to build confidence in performance assessment methodologies. This contribution describes recent BASE activities within Task F Salt of DECOVALEX-2023, including lessons learnt and possible future steps.
Benjamin Offen and Stephan Hotzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 231–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-231-2023, 2023
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This presentation will deliver insight into the preliminary studies preceding the planned research project on the aspects of potential marking strategies for a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste in Germany.
Martin Navarro, Stephan Hotzel, Ute Maurer-Rurack, Gerd Frieling, and Torben Weyand
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 95–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-95-2023, 2023
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The METIENS project, which is carried out by the Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management (BASE), investigates the fundamental challenges of a site selection process that is characterized by high variability with respect to host rocks, safety concepts, and repository concepts, as in the German case. The presentation will provide examples of unavoidable subjective decisions in the evaluation of safety.
Stephan Hotzel and Benjamin Offen
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 2, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-241-2023, 2023
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A
resilient system at social levelcan be understood as one where society takes responsibility for the repository and acts to preserve – by preserving information and awareness – the basic conditions for future generations to take responsibility. Societal responsibility is also included in the concept of post-closure oversight, promoted, e.g., by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. This session aims to discuss (the need for) awareness preservation and post-closure oversight.
Martin Navarro, Ingo Kock, Gerd Frieling, and Thomas Beuth
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 41–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-41-2021, 2021
Ingo Kock, Michael Jendras, Thorsten Faß, Gerd Frieling, Wolfram Wartenberg, and Karsten Leopold
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 59–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-59-2021, 2021
Jens Eckel, Martin Navarro, and Stephan Hotzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 171–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-171-2021, 2021
Ingo Kock, Martin Navarro, Jens Eckel, Carsten Rücker, and Stephan Hotzel
Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 303–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/sand-1-303-2021, 2021
Cited articles
Kock, I., Navarro, M., Eckel, J., Rücker, C., and Hotzel, S.: What do we need to trust in models?, Saf. Nucl. Waste Disposal, 1, 303–302, 2021.
NEA: Methods for Safety Assessment of Geological Disposal Facilities for Radioactive Waste: Outcomes of the NEA MeSA Initiative, Radioactive Waste Management, 6923, OECD Publishing, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France, 238 pp., ISBN 978-92-64-99190-3, 2012.
Seidl, R., Becker, D.-A., Drögemüller, C., and Wolf, J.: Kommunikation und Wahrnehmung wissenschaftlicher Ungewissheiten, in: Entscheidungen in die weite Zukunft: Ungewissheiten bei der Entsorgung hochradioaktiver Abfälle, edited by: Eckhardt, A., Becker, F., Mintzlaff, V., Scheer, D., and Seidl, R., Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, Wiesbaden, 313–336, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-42698-9_15, 2024.
StandAG: Act on the Search for and Selection of a Site for a Disposal Facility for High-Level Radioactive Waste: Site Selection Act – StandAG, BGBl. I, 26, 1074–1100, 2017.
Wilkinson, M. D., Dumontier, M., Aalbersberg, I. J. J., Appleton, G., Axton, M., Baak, A., Blomberg, N., Boiten, J.-W., Da Silva Santos, L. B., Bourne, P. E., Bouwman, J., Brookes, A. J., Clark, T., Crosas, M., Dillo, I., Dumon, O., Edmunds, S., Evelo, C. T., Finkers, R., Gonzalez-Beltran, A., Gray, A. J. G., Groth, P., Goble, C., Grethe, J. S., Heringa, J., Hoen, P. A. C. 't, Hooft, R., Kuhn, T., Kok, R., Kok, J., Lusher, S. J., Martone, M. E., Mons, A., Packer, A. L., Persson, B., Rocca-Serra, P., Roos, M., van Schaik, R., Sansone, S.-A., Schultes, E., Sengstag, T., Slater, T., Strawn, G., Swertz, M. A., Thompson, M., van der Lei, J., van Mulligen, E., Velterop, J., Waagmeester, A., Wittenburg, P., Wolstencroft, K., Zhao, J., and Mons, B.: The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship, Sci. Data, 3, 160018, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.18, 2016.
Short summary
In 2021, BASE headed a short workshop called “What do we need to do to trust in models?” at the first edition of the safeND symposium conference (safeND: "Safety of Nuclear Waste Diposal“; Kock et al. 2021). Because of the broad interest people showed in the topic, three consecutive workshops on the topic of “Trust in Models” (TiM) were held between 2022 and 2025. In this Open Letter, we will present the main points of discussion.
In 2021, BASE headed a short workshop called “What do we need to do to trust in models?” at the...
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